Historically accurate 'momentum indicator' hints at possible Bitcoin breakout ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) could see a “massive bullish move” if a classic trigger from the 2021 bull run repeats this week.

In a tweet on Dec. 16, on-chain analyst Matthew Hyland, known by the Twitter handle Parabolic Matt, drew attention to Bitcoin’s momentum indicator.

Momentum indicator hints at potential "massive bullish move"

While still under $50,000, Bitcoin has already broken out of a long-term downtrend on the momentum indicator, which measures closing prices against those from a period in the past.

Two such breakouts have occurred this year, and after each one, BTC/USD went on to see considerable upside.

“The previous two times it broke out of a multi-month downtrend this year, a massive bullish move followed,” Hyland wrote as part of comments.

While not a guarantee of “up only” price action, the momentum data joins a large number of on-chain metrics flashing bull signals this month — a list that keeps growing.

Hyland is known for his highly optimistic price forecasts, and last month caused a stir by predicting that Bitcoin would hit $250,000 in January 2022 while invalidating one of the popular stock-to-flow price models.

#Bitcoin bottom structure on the RSI and Momentum indicators (daily time frame) look very similar to what occurred in September before the reversal up started•Momentum has broken out•RSI needs a close above resistance to confirm breakout•Bitcoin price waiting to breakout pic.twitter.com/XDwiUsSj2U

— Matthew Hyland (@Parabolic_Matt) December 15, 2021

In further analysis, he noted that both the momentum indicator and Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on daily timeframes are mimicking behavior from September, when the market put in a local bottom before rising to current $69,000 all-time highs.

Dollar dives post Fed

Spot price action was meanwhile quieter on Thursday, Bitcoin lingering around $49,000 despite a conspicuous drop in the U.S. dollar.

Related: Bitcoin sheds ‘dumb money’ as retail buys most BTC since March 2020 crash

The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which measures USD against a basket of trading partner currencies, reversed its extended bull run last week, with Thursday seeing a pronounced comedown, data from TradingView shows.

Traditionally inversely correlated with BTC, DXY's drop follows a boost for crypto and equities alike courtesy of the Federal Reserve.