Price analysis 11/2: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LINK, BNB, LTC, DOT, BSV, ADA
China’s central bank governor Yi Gang has said that the nation’s digital yuan pilot projects have processed transactions worth over $299 million without any major problems. This suggests that China is much ahead of its competitors in developing and studying the central bank digital currency (CBDC).
However, the European Central Bank does not want to be left behind. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has invited comments from the public on whether they “would be happy to use a digital Euro just in the way they use a Euro coin or a Euro banknote.”
Another central bank that is trying to keep pace is the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank has partnered with banks, financial institutions and software companies to study the “implications of a CBDC for efficiency, risk management and innovation in wholesale financial market transactions,” said RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock.
The news of several nations contemplating the launch of a CBDC is a long-term positive but this news may not affect the short-term price action, which is dictated by market sentiment.
Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out whether the sentiment is to buy the dips or sell the rallies.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to rise and sustain above the $13,973.50 overhead resistance in the past few days could have attracted profit booking from some short-term traders and shorting by aggressive bears.
However, the positive sign is that the bulls are not allowing the bears to have their way. The long tail on the candlestick suggests buying at lower levels.
If the BTC/USD pair rises from the current levels, then the bulls will make one more attempt to drive the price above the $13,973.50–$14,101.91 resistance zone. If they succeed, the uptrend could resume.
Although both the moving averages are sloping up, the bearish divergence on the relative strength index suggests that the momentum has weakened. A break below the 20-day exponential moving average ($12,819) will be the first sign of strength for the bears.
If the bears can capitalize on this strength and sink the pair below $12,460, then a deeper correction to the 50-day simple moving average ($11,567) is possible.
ETH/USD
The bulls had pushed Ether (ETH) above the downtrend line today but they could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are selling on minor rallies. The bears have currently dragged the price back to the 20-day EMA ($386).
A break and close below the 20-day EMA could drag the price to the uptrend line. The 50-day SMA ($371) is close to this support, hence, the bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the ETH/USD pair rebounds off the uptrend line, the bulls will once again try to propel the price above the downtrend line and the $405 overhead resistance. If they succeed, it will increase the possibility of a rally to $420 and then to $450.
Conversely, if the bears sink the price below the uptrend line, a fall to $360 and then to $333 is possible.
The flat moving averages and the RSI close to the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. This suggests an equal opportunity for the bulls and the bears in tilting the advantage in their favor.
XRP/USD
The rebound from the $0.2295 support in XRP hit a barrier at the moving averages and the price has turned down from there. The bears are currently attempting to sink the altcoin below the $0.2295–$0.219712 support zone.
If they succeed, the XRP/USD pair could start a new downtrend that may reach $0.19. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.24) and the RSI below 38 suggest that the bears are in control.
However, if the bulls can defend the support zone and push the pair back above the moving averages, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. In such a case, the pair may remain range-bound for a few more days.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has once again turned down from the $272 resistance and the bears are currently attempting to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($258.58) and the immediate support at $253.14.
If the bears manage to do that, the BCH/USD pair could drop to the next support at the 50-day SMA ($240.57).
Although the moving averages are still sloping up gradually, the RSI has broken down from a symmetrical triangle and has dropped close to the midpoint. This suggests that the bears are attempting to make a comeback.
This bearish view will be invalidated if the pair bounces off the 20-day EMA and breaks above the $272–$280 resistance zone.
LINK/USD
The bulls pushed Chainlink (LINK) above the 20-day EMA ($11.21) on Nov. 1 but they could not build upon this momentum. Today, the price has again dipped back below the 20-day EMA and the bears are currently attempting to break the support at the 50-day SMA ($10.51).
LINK/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A breakdown and close below the uptrend line will be the first sign that the bears are back in action. There is minor support at $9.7665 but if the bears can sink the price below it, a drop to $8.3817 will be on the cards.
This bearish view will be invalidated if the LINK/USD pair turns up from the current levels or bounces off the uptrend line and rises above $12. Such a move could result in a rally to $13.28.
The flat moving averages and the RSI below the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. Hence, neither the bulls nor the bears have a clear advantage.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) has been trading near the 50-day SMA ($28) for the past three days, which suggests that the bulls are attempting to defend this support. However, the bears are unlikely to give up their advantage easily.
They sold the rally to the 20-day EMA ($29) today and are currently attempting to pull the price below the $28.42–$27.51 support zone. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USD pair could decline to $24.86.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI below 43 suggest that the bears have the upper hand. However, if the bears fail to capitalize on the advantage, the bulls will again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could move up to $32.
LTC/USD
Litecoin (LTC) has once again turned down from just above the $56.50 level today, which suggests that the bears are defending this resistance. The sellers will now try to sink the altcoin below the $52.36–$51 support.
If they can do that, then the LTC/USD pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($49) and if this support also cracks, the decline may extend to $46.
However, the bulls are likely to buy the drop to the support zone. The flat 20-day EMA ($53) and the RSI just above the midpoint suggests a range-bound action for a few more days.
The advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls if they can push and sustain the price above $56.50.
DOT/USD
The bounce from the $3.80 support in Polkadot (DOT) fizzled out at the 20-day EMA ($4.22). The bears will now try to sink the price below the immediate support at $3.80. If that happens, a drop to $3.5321 will be on the cards.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, which suggests a slight advantage to the bears.
If the bears can sink the price below $3.5321, the DOT/USD pair may start a new downtrend that could reach $2.60 and then $2.0.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls defend the $3.80–$3.5321 support zone, the pair may remain range-bound between $3.5321 and $4.6112 for a few more days.
BSV/USD
The failure of the bulls to push Bitcoin SV (BSV) above the 20-day EMA ($166) in the past three days shows a lack of demand at higher levels. This has attracted selling by the bears who are currently attempting to sink the price below the uptrend line.
If they succeed, the BSV/USD pair could drop to the $146.20–$135 support zone. A breakdown of this zone could result in panic selling that may start a new downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $100.
However, if the bulls defend the support zone, the pair could remain range-bound between $146.20–$180.63 for a few more days.
ADA/USDT
The rebound from the $0.0893 support in Cardano (ADA) has turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.10). This is a negative sign as it shows that the bears are selling on rallies.
ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the bears sink the price below $0.0893, the ADA/USD pair could drop to the critical support at $0.07555701. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Contrary to this assumption, if the pair again rebounds off the $0.0893 support, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating closer to this level. A break above $0.104044 will be the first sign that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.